• editor.aipublications@gmail.com
  • Track Your Paper
  • Contact Us
  • ISSN: 2456-8678

International Journal Of Rural Development, Environment And Health Research(IJREH)

Demography and Economic Growth in Namibia

James O. Bukenya

International Journal of Rural Development, Environment and Health Research(IJREH), Vol-3,Issue-1, January - February 2019, Pages 4-13, 10.22161/ijreh.3.1.2

Download | Downloads : 6 | Total View : 957


The paper contributes to the ongoing debate about the influence of demographic change on economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a focus on Namibia. Annual data covering 42 years for total fertility rate, infant mortality rate, age-dependence ratio, population growth and per capita gross domestic product are used to provide insights into how changing demographics of Namibia society may impact its future economic growth. Several techniques including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition are utilized in the analysis. The findings reveal the existence of a long-run relationship between economic growth and the key demographic variables. The findings also point toward the presence of a unidirectional causality running from demographic variables to economic growth. Overall, the results support the hypothesis that demographic events account for Namibia's economic growth and subsequently its economic development over the studied period.

cointegration, demographic transition, economic growth, variance decomposition.

[1] Kirk D, 1996. Demographic transition theory. Population Studies 50(3): 361-387.
[2] Dyson T, 2010. Population and development: The demographic transition. New York, NY: Zed Books.
[3] Caldwell JC, 2006. Demographic transition theory. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer.
[4] Bloom DE & Canning D, 2011. Demographics and development policy. PGDA Working Paper No. 66 (http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/working.htm) (Accessed 7 June 2017).
[5] Thuku GK, Gachanja P & Obere A, 2013.The impact of population change on economic growth in Kenya. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2(6): 43-60.
[6] Canning DJ, Raja JS & Yazbeck AS, 2015. Africa's demographic transition: Dividend or disaster? Africa development forum. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group (http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/131891468179371220/Africa-s-demographic-transition-dividend-or-disaster) (Accessed 4 May 2017).
[7] Ahmed SA, Cruz M, Go DS, Maliszewska M & Osorio-Rodarte I, 2016. How significant is Sub-Saharan Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction? Review of Development Economics 20(4): 762-793.
[8] The Republic of Namibia, 2014. Namibia demographic and health survey 2013. Ministry of Health and Social Services Windhoek, Namibia.
[9] International Monetary Fund Country Report, 2018. 2017 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Namibia. Country Report No. 18/56. (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/02/28/Namibia-2017-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-45665) (Accessed 9 February 2018).
[10] United Nations Population Division, 2017. Namibia: Percent urban population. (https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Namibia/Percent_urban_population/) (Accessed 9 February 2018).
[11] UN-IGME, 2017. Child Mortality Estimates. UNICEF Global Databases. http://data.unicef.org.
[12] Climent F & Meneu R, 2003. Demography and economic growth in Spain: A time series analysis. Department of Financial Economics (University of Valencia). (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=482222) (Accessed 5 August 2016)
[13] Prettner K & Prskawetz A, 2010. Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth: A survey. VID Working Paper 08/2010, Vienna Institute of Demography.
[14] Song S, 2013. Demographic Changes and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Asia. Honors Projects. Paper 121. (http://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/econ_honproj/121) (Accessed 21 March 2017).
[15] Doran J, 2012. An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labor effort and economic growth in Ireland. International Journal of Social Economics 39(3): 221 – 237
[16] Herzer D, Strulik H & Vollmer S, 2012. The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999. Journal of Economic Growth 17, 357–385.
[17] Jemna D, 2015. Causality relationship between economic development and fertility in Romania on the regional level. Procedia Economics and Finance. 20. 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00081-7. (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273524481_Causality_Relationship_between_Economic_Development_and_Fertility_in_Romania_on_Regional_Level) (Accessed 6 June 2017).
[18] Ranganathan S, Swain RB & Sumpter DJT, 2015. The demographic transition and economic growth: Implications for development policy. Palgrave Communications. DOI: 10.1057/palcomms.2015.33. (www.palgrave-journals.com/palcomms) (Accessed 6 June 2017).
[19] Iqbal K, Yasmin N & Yaseen MR, 2015. Impact of demographic transition on economic growth of Pakistan. Journal of Finance and Economics 3(2): 44-50.
[20] Asumadu-Sarkodie S & Owusu, PA, 2016. The casual nexus between child mortality rate, fertility rate, GDP, household final consumption expenditure, and food production index. Cogent Economics and Finance 4(1): 1-15.
[21] Namibia Data Portal, 2018. AFDB socio-economic database, 1960-2020. (http://namibia.opendataforafrica.org/mehqknd/afdb-socio-economic-database-1960-2020) (Accessed 6 August 2018).
[22] United Nations Statistics, 2017. Per Capita GDP at current prices in US Dollars (all countries). (www.unstats.un.org) (Accessed 9 February 2018
[23] Dickey DA & Fuller WA, 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(366): 427-31.
[24] Pesaran M & Pesaran B, 1997. Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Economic Analysis. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
[25] Pesaran MH, Shin Y & Smith RJ, 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of the level relationship. Journal of Applied Economics 16, 289-326.
[26] Ghatak S & Siddiki J, 2001. The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India. Journal of Applied Statistics 11, 573-583.
[27] Pesaran M. H & Shin Y, 1998. Impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics Letters 58, 17-29.
[28] Engle RF & Granger CJW, 1987. Cointegration and error correction representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55(22): 251-276.
[29] Sims CA, 1980, Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica 48, 1–48.
[30] Narayan PK, 2005. The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics 37, 1979-1990.
[31] Bloom D & Canning D, 2001. Cumulative causality, economic growth, and the demographic transition. In Birdsall N, Kelley AC & Sinding S (eds), Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
[32] Kalemli-Ozcan S, 2002. Does mortality decline promote economic growth? Journal of Economic Growth 7(4): 411-39.
[33] Luci-Greulich A & Thévenon O, 2014. Does economic advancement cause a re-increase in fertility? An empirical analysis for OECD countries (1960–2007). European Journal of Population 30, 187–221.
[34] Fox J, Klüsener S & Myrskylä M, 2015. Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe. WP 2015-006 (https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-006.pdf) (Accessed 13 September 2017).
[35] Myrskylä M, Kohler H & Francesco C, 2011. High development and fertility: Fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link. Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Working Paper PSC 11-06. (http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/30/) (Accessed 14 March 2017)
[36] Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2014. Information about discriminatory social institutions for 160 countries and economies. Social Institutions and Gender Index. (https://www.genderindex.org/countries/?region=sub-saharan-africa) (Accessed 9 February 2018).
[37] Chang T, Chu H, Deale FW & Gupta R, 2014. The relationship between population growth and economic growth over 1870-2013: Evidence from a bootstrapped panel-Granger causality test. Working Paper: 2014-31. Department of Economics, University of Pretoria (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2813455) (Accessed 6 May 2017).
[38] Dawson P J & Tiffin R, 1998. Is there a long-run relationship between population growth and living standards? The case of India. Journal of Development Studies 34(5): 149-56.
[39] Thornton J, 2001. Population growth and economic growth: Long-run evidence from Latin America. Southern Economic Journal 68(2): 464-68.
[40] Prskawetz A, Fent T & Barthel W, 2007. The relationship between demographic change and economic growth in the EU. Research Report N. 32, Vienna Institute of Demography.
[41] Huang F & Su J, 2010. Functionary mechanism between demographic structure and economic growth in China based on Cointegrating methods. Research in World Economy 1, 1 (www.sciedu.ca/rwe. DOI: 10.5430/rwe.v1n1p10) (Accessed 6 June 2017).